—Apr 13— Tiger Moth, an 18/1 outsider, ran down the heavy favorite, Unique Bella, in the final strides to win the Grade I $700,000 Apple Blossom Handicap at Oaklawn Park. The surprise win was a first for both horse and rider.

Tiger Moth entered the race off a string of desultory performances in graded stakes races at 8½ furlongs. She finished next-to-last in the Houston Ladies Classic at Sam Houston in her debut, then followed that performance with two next-to-last efforts at Oaklawn— first in the Bayakoa Stakes then in the Grade II Azeri Stakes. Those efforts were with Florent Geroux (35-11-11-1 31.4%) in the saddle, so the change to Fernando De La Cruz (6-0-2-1 entering the race) seemed to help.

—Apr 13— David Cabrera was biding his time. Sitting chilly aboard Wonder Gadot, the 8/5 favorite in the $400,000 Grade III Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn, he remained calm as Sassy Sienna and Talk Veuve to Me battled on the front end. Midway through the race, Cabrera remained in fourth place ahead of just Cosmic Burst and 24/1 longshot Princess Warrior.

As Sassy Sienna began to tire, he made his move, slowly at first, and then with more urgency, positioning Wonder Gadot just a length behind Sassy Sienna and Red Ruby, who was now challenging for the lead on the outside. A jump later, Wonder Gadot had drawn even with the leaders.

Taking the lead entering the stretch, Wonder Gadot faced a final challenge from Sassy Sienna before crossing underneath the wire a length in front.

The win was the second of the year for Wonder Gadot, who won the six furlongs Dixie Belle Stakes here in January.

—Apr 7— Following on the heals of She’s a Julie’s stunning upset of Monomoy Girl in the Ashland Stakes, Kanthaka, the 4/1 third choice in the betting, upset race favorite, Mendelssohn, to win the first division of the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland Race Track in Lexington.

One race later, Good Magic struck a much-needed blow for favorites, delivering a one length win over Flameaway as the 1/5 favorite in the second division.

Kanthaka’s half-length score offered plenty of drama. After running down Blended Citizen and seemingly in command of the race down the stretch, Kanthaka seemed to hang, allowing both Blended Citizen and Mendelssohn to get back into the race. Fortunately for Kanthaka and jockey, Julien Leparoux (who is mired in a horrendous slump, winning just one of his thirty mounts), Kanthaka had enough in reserve to prevail.

The second division assumed a similar race pattern. Good Magic broke somewhat tardily but quickly spurt to a large lead entering the final furlong. Flameaway, racing second at this point, appeared well-beaten. But similar to Kanthaka, Good Magic appeared to hang, allowing Flameaway time to rally.

 

 

—Apr 7— Ricardo Santana hustled She’s a Julie from the gate, drew out to a large early lead, then held on gamely as the overwhelming 1/20 race favorite, Monomoy Girl, unleashed a powerful late bid that fell three-quarters of a length short to win the 81st running of the Grade I Ashland Stakes at Keeneland Race Course on Saturday. 

With the victory, She’s a Julie became the nation’s top money-earner in the three-year-old fillies division.

The real story of the race, though, was Monomoy Girl, who dawdled leaving the gate and was allowed to fall far behind the winner by her rider, Florent Geroux. Whether or not Geroux will remain on the talented filly moving forward is anyone’s guess. Based on the conflicted look on co-owner Sol Kumin’s face after the race, the ownership team will, at the very least, weigh their options. Kumin’s post race remarks offering a modicum of support for the rider fell short of an endorsement: “I think Florent was doing what he could to try to win the race,” the owner said.

She’s a Julie paid $21.80, $2.90 and $2.20 as the 9/1 second-favorite.

Eskimo Kisses, the third favorite at 12/1, finished third, followed by C.S. Incharge. Patrona Margarita and Andina Del Sur were far back. 

—Apr 7— Bob Baffert is well aware of the stakes. After announcing that his star colt, McKinzie, would not run in the Santa Anita Derby on Saturday due to an unspecified back-leg injury, the four-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer has just two horses eligible to compete in the Derby: Solomini and Justify.

Solomini ranks fourteenth in qualifying points and is unlikely to draw into the six-horse field. That leaves Justify, the obviously talented son of Scat Daddy, whose only previous start was an easy two-length win in the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields. The problem for Baffert is that the El Camino Real Derby win leaves Justify with just 10 qualifying points. He will need to win the Santa Anita Derby to be assured a spot in the Kentucky Derby field.

While it is highly likely that Justify will be odds-on in the Santa Anita Derby, the field in the Santa Anita Derby makes the race far from a slam dunk.

Bold d’Oro stands as the chief competition. An easy winner of the California Derby in January, Bold d’Oro followed that win with a second-place finish to McKinzie in the San Felipe Stakes in March.

Core Beliefs followed a third-place showing in the California Derby with a win in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes here in early February. He finished fifth to Justify in the El Camino Real Derby but was beaten just five-and-a-half lengths. It is not inconceivable for him to turn the tables on Saturday.

Axelrod finished third on the turf last time out, but has been competitive with these on the dirt as has Twin Creeks Farm’s Lombo.

Instilled Regard, the runaway winner of the Lecomte Stakes in January, was atop everyone’s list of Derby hopefuls after that effort but has since run poorly in the Risen Star and Private Terms Stakes.

Santa Anita Derby Past Performances

—Apr 7— Monomoy Stables, Michael Dubb, The Elkstone Group and Bethlehem Stables’ Monomoy Girl is expected to rule as the heavy favorite in a field of six 3-year-old fillies entered for Saturday’s 81st running of the $500,000 Grade I Central Bank Ashland Stakes at Keeneland. Trained by Brad Cox and to be ridden by Florent Geroux (32-10-10-1 31.3%), Monomoy Girl enters the race following a blowout four-and-a-quarter length win in the Grade II Rachel Alexandra Stakes at the Fair Grounds in mid-February.

Ken McPeek’s talented filly, Eskimo Kisses, who’s earned $207,150 from four starts, second among 3-year-old fillies in 2018, is likely to be second in the betting. Ridden by Corey Lanerie, Eskimo Kisses was last seen losing a narrow decision to Chocolate Martini in the Grade II Fair Grounds Oaks. Prior to that effort, Eskimo Kisses claimed the Grade III Honeybee Stakes at Oaklawn.

Steve Asmussen’s She’s a Julie is the likely third choice. Though badly beaten in the Rachel Alexandra, she rebounded to finish a close third in the Fair Grounds Oaks.

Rounding out the field are C.S. Incharge, second in both the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) and Davona Dale (G2) stakes at Gulfstream Park; Andina Del Sur and Patrona Margarita.

—Apr 7— Gary and Mary West’s Restoring Hope emerged from a tightly packed cluster of horses to win the 94th running of the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. Officially the fourth favorite, Restoring Hope was one of four horses whose final odds were under 7/2.

King Zachary, an 11/1 outsider, finished second, a neck in front of Firenze Fire.

The favorite in the race, Godolphin’s Enticed, finished last.

—Apr 7— With three major stakes races for three-year-olds occurring today and the Arkansas Derby scheduled for next Saturday, April 14, the battle to earn a spot in the 144th Kentucky Derby begins in earnest. One hundred qualifying points are up for grabs in each of the four races beginning with the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, the Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita, and Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. As things stand now, the top 20 horses in Derby qualifying points are shown in the table below.

Rank	Horses	Points
1	Principe Guilherme	121
2	Catholic Boy	100
3	My Boy Jack	74
4	McKinzie	60
5	Promises Fulfilled	60
6	Quip	60
7	Avery Island	54
8	Noble Indy	50
9	Runaway Ghost	50
10	Title Ready	50
11	Hofburg	45
12	Audible	30
13	Bravazo	30
14	Solomini	22
15	Vino Rosso	22
16	Bolt d’Oro	20
17	Good Magic	20
18	Sky Promise	20
19	Untamed Domain	20
20	High North	15

Top contenders like Combatant, Core Beliefs, Enticed, Flameaway, Free Drop Billy, Instilled Regard, Justify, Magnum Moon and Mendelssohn don’t even crack the Top 20. With so much on the line, trainers are understandably anxious.

Justify, a chestnut colt by Scat Daddy with a tremendous stride, looked great winning the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields in mid-February at odds of 1/20, but it represents his only start this year, and the margin of victory (just two lengths) in a non-graded race against so-so company leaves room for concern. When asked about his colt’s Derby prospects, trainer Bob Baffert’s quipped “It’s not too late!” which falls short of an endorsement.  He has earned only 10 points and will need to win the Santa Anita Derby to be assured of a sport in the Derby.

Purchased for $1,050,000 at a March 2-year-old in training sale, Kentucky-bred Instilled Regard was an early Kentucky Derby favorite following his dominant win in the Lecomte Stakes, but since then finished fourth then last in the Risen Star and Private Terms Stakes, respectively. He has earned just 15 points to date.

Todd Pletcher’s Magnum Moon has been a disaster to date, losing all three of his starts as the odds-on favorite. He was fifth in an allowance race at Gulfstream in his debut, despite being bet down to 1/5 on the board. He followed that effort with a third place finish in the Swale Stakes as the 3/5 favorite, before regressing to finish fifth in the Rebel as the 2/5 favorite. Consequently, he faces the daunting task of having to win the Arkansas Derby, beating the undefeated Quip, to have any shot at the Derby. 

But the situation is little better for every horse in the top twenty. Indeed, only Principe Guilherme, who annexed the Grade II Louisiana Derby (at 20/1) in his last start after finishing second in the Risen Start, is likely to make the cut regardless of the outcomes of the upcoming races. With 100 points offered to the winner of each race, the Kentucky Derby field is likely to be decided by the winners of those races.

—Apr 7— Vino Rosso, a chestnut colt by Curlin, is expected to be made the narrow favorite in Saturday’s $1,000,000 Grade I Wood Memorial Stakes at Aqueduct. After finishing third in his debut in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa, Vino Rosso was shipped to New York, where he finished second to Avery Island (since sidelined) in the Gotham Stakes. With just $80,000 in earnings and 22 Kentucky Derby points, perhaps Vino Rosso’s biggest selling point is his trainer, Todd Pletcher, who has won the Wood Memorial four times. 

“He’s a horse that’s trained very well all winter and in company with some very good horses that have gone on to be successful,” said Pletcher. “So, we’ve been a little frustrated with his races this year.” 

“We’ve been looking forward to the Wood for a while,” he added. “We’re excited to get him back to Aqueduct. It’s where he broke his maiden and stretching out to a mile and an eighth is going to allow him to show his true ability.”

The likely second-choice in the betting, Firenze Fire, began the year with back-to-back second-place finishes in the Jerome Stakes and Withers Stakes at Aqueduct before falling apart in the Gotham, where he finished last, beaten fourteen lengths. He leads the field with $88,000 in earnings and has just 8 Kentucky Derby points. The Wood Memorial will be the fourth local Derby prep for the Mr. Amore Stables homebred.

With 12 qualifying points, Enticed, by Medaglia d’Oro and out of multiple Grade 1 winner It’s Tricky, is another who will need to run well in the Wood to have any hope of qualifying for the Derby. Third in both the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream and the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct, the Kiaran McLaughlin trainee has proven competitive with the likes of these but will need to take a step up to have any chance of reaching the Winner’s Circle. McLaughlin believes he’s up to the task.

“He’s doing very well,” said McLaughlin. “He’s training great. We’re happy with him and we’re there trying to win an important race. Even if it doesn’t have Grade 1 status, we feel like it is a Grade 1. It’s a huge race for a horse in his career, especially for a stallion prospect. Only one horse wins the Derby, so this is a very important race on Saturday.”

Gary and Mary West’s homebred, Restoring Hope, will ship east from Hall of Famer Bob Baffert’s training base in Southern California to compete in the Wood. Fifth to Bolt d’Oro in the ungraded California Derby at Golden Gate Fields in February, Restoring Hope improved to be third in the Grade II San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita. With 0 qualifying points, his appearance here appears to be a Hail Mary by his connections.

Rounding out the field are King Zachary, whose best finish to date occurred in his last start in the Private Terms Stakes at Laurel when he finished second by a head to Diamond King. He has earned just $42,970 in four starts this year.

Way Early was last in the Gotham Stakes at 38/1 and isn’t likely to be competitive here.

—Apr 7— National Flag, who finished third in the Grade III Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream Park two weeks ago, and Engage, fourth to Gronkowski in the Jerome Stakes in mid-January, head a competitive field of six three-year-olds set to battle in the Bay Shore Stakes at 7 furlongs at Aqueduct on Saturday.

National Flag is trained by Todd Pletcher and was well-regarded in the Hutcheson, going postward as the 6/5 second favorite to the eventual winner, World of Trouble.

Engage is trained by Steve Asmussen, and was a $550,000 purchase at the Ocala Breeders’ Sales Company Two-Year-Olds in Training Sale in March, 2017. Though fourth, Engage ran against top competition in the Jerome.

Bal Harbour, the only previous winner in the field, was fifth in his last start in the Private Terms Stakes at Laurel. His 1¼ length score in the Withers was preceded by another fifth place finish in the Much Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream Park in January. The Bay Shore will mark his first try sprinting.

Marconi was third in the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park in his last start. Like Bal Harbour, the Bay Shore will mark his first attempt in a sprint race.

Finally, Identity Politics and Carrick will be making their 2018 debuts in the Bay Shore. Given the overall quality of the field, both are expected to be competitive.