—May 19— Bob Baffert’s undefeated colt, Justify, is the heavy favorite to win the 143rd renewal of the Preakness Stakes. The Derby winner will face a decidedly average field, with only Good Magic, who finished second in the Derby, and Bravazo, who failed to draw in to the Derby, likely to offer much competition.

Chad Brown’s Good Magic has had an excellent campaign to date, winning the second division of the Blue Grass Stakes after finishing second in the Fountain of Youth Stakes to begin the year. Though badly beaten in the Derby, he has earned nearly one million dollars in just three starts and will be ridden by the nation’s leading rider, Jose Ortiz.

Bravazo has had a more modest campaign. In three starts he has finished third three times. He was favored in the Risen Star and a short price in the Louisiana Derby. His last start was at a mile-and-a-sixteenth at Churchill Downs on Oaks day. He is likely to be the third choice in the betting on Saturday.

After the top three, the field thins out considerably. Tenfold raced well at Oaklawn during the winter and early spring but finished last in the Arkansas Derby and failed to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. He has earned just $68,500 in four starts, the lowest figure in the race.

Sporting Chance was a disaster at Oaklawn Park early in the year. He finished next to last in the Smarty Jones, last in the Southwest Stakes and last again, beaten nearly 20 lengths, in the Rebel. He has shown considerable improvement in his last two starts, finishing third behind Good Magic in the Blue Grass and within a length of the winner in the Grade 3 Pat Day Mile on Derby day.

Finally, Lone Sailor began the year by finishing last in the Lecomte, losing by nearly a dozen lengths. He improved to be fourth in the Louisiana Derby, then improved again to finish a close second to My Boy Jack in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. His last start was a fifth place showing in the same race as Bravazo.

—May 18— It’s fair to say the best of the three-year-old fillies division competed in the Kentucky Oaks two weeks ago at Churchill Downs and that the $250,000 Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes has attracted fillies firmly rooted in the second-tier. Nonetheless, the six fillies who will vie in the race are not without merit.

The best among them, Red Ruby, is from Tiznow out of a Rubiano mare. Racing exclusively at Oaklawn Park, she has yet to win a race, having finished third three times and second once. One of those third place finished came in the Grade 3 Fantasy Stakes against the likes of Wonder Gadot and Sassy Sienna, who finished second in separate divisions of the Kentucky Oaks. Red Ruby beat Sassy Sienna in the Grade 3 Honeybee Stakes in March.

Sara Street, by Street Sense and trained by Kiaran McLaughlin for Godolphin, has been a fixture at Aqueduct this winter, with moderate success. She was last in her two starts at 9 furlongs but finished a decent third to Shamrock Rose in the Weber City Miss Stakes at Laurel.

The third choice in the race is Coach Rocks, who enters the race after finishing third in the second division of the Kentucky Oaks. Before that race, she finished third in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks as the 7/5 favorite. She’s been out of the money just once in five starts, earning a race-high $169,650.

Midnight Disguise, who hasn’t hit the board in three starts, has nonetheless been well-regarded in each. Her best effort was probably her fourth-place showing in the Grade 2 Gazelle in her last start.

The most interesting horse in the race might be C. S. Incharge. Fourth in the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes at Keeneland, she’d previously finished second in both the Gulfstream Park Oaks and Davona Dale Stakes at Gulfstream.

Indy Union was a badly beaten fifth in her only start in the Weber City Miss Stakes.

Black-Eyed Susan Stakes Past Performances

—May 18— Edgar Prado was in no hurry rushing Something Awesome from the gate in the $300,000 Pimlico Special. The talented seven-year-old by Awesome Again remained far back as Irish Way Cry and Jose Ortiz led the field through the early stages.

A hop from the finish, Irish War Cry was two lengths in front of Hedge Fund and far in front of the rest of the field. It was only at this point that Prado got to work on Something Awesome, pushing him forward past Hedge Fund and finally to even terms with Irish War Cry. The final margin was three-quarters of a length.

Irish War Cry held off Hedge Fund by a half length.

—May 18— Stronach Stable’s Something Awesome, last seen winning the Henry Clark Stakes on the turf at Laurel, headlines a competitive field of older horses in the $300,000 Grade 3 Pimlico Special.

Set to oppose the likely favorite is Trin-Brook Stables’ Discreet Lover, winner of the Grade 3 Excelsior Stakes at Aqueduct in April. Like Something Awesome, Discreet Lover is undefeated.

Rated R Superstar, winner of the Ben Ali Stakes at Keeneland has been a solid performer all year. The five-year-old gelding has raced five times, winning twice and finishing off-the-board just once, when he finished a close fourth at the Essex Handicap at Oaklawn Park.

Hedge Fund (second in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap), Irish War Cry (winner of the Grade 3 Hal’s Hope Stakes) and Untrapped (third in the Oaklawn Handicap) round out a good field.

Pimlico Special Past Performances

—May 5— Justify became the first horse since Apollo in 1882 to win the Kentucky Derby without racing as a two-year old. In a driving rain, Justify romped home a convincing 4 length winner, quieting critics who claimed he had been unimpressive in his prep races prior to the Derby, despite winning.

“When he got away clean, I thought we had a chance,” Baffert said after the race. “He was doing it easy. Him, American Pharoah, these are great horses and it took a great horse to win today. I rank him Justify up there with my top ones. This track had me worried, but wow, he just had a run.”

Justify was the first horse out of the gate but ceded ground to Hofburg and Good Magic as Mike Smith worked to get him to relax. But before the horses had reached the halfway point, Justify had once more pulled Smith to the lead. From there, he simply bounded home, handing trainer Bob Baffert his fifth Derby win. Baffert was quick to give credit to the horse.

“He’s a superior horse,” Bob says. “And he’s come really quick. He’s done it a little bit quicker than Pharoah.”

Smith claimed he had a feeling he was going to win before the race.

“Warming up, I always take a look at the competition to see who’s handling things well, who’s not—it’s just something I do—and he was just so professional,” Smith said. “He looked better, he was better, and he acted better. I just remember thinking, ‘God, you’re so good, you’re so smart.’ That’s all I ever remember thinking about him almost every time he ever ran.”

“Any time you’re blessed to win a Triple Crown race, especially the Derby, it’s always amazing,” Smith said. “There’s no feeling like it, and there’s no words in my vocabulary that can describe it.”

Good Magic, who won the second division of the Blue Grass Stakes, finished second and Hofburg, who entered the race winless in four starts, surprised to finish third at 25/1.

After Hofburg came Audible, followed by My Boy Jack and Magnum Moon.

 

—May 5— Bob Baffert’s undefeated colt, Justify, is expected to be made the heavy favorite in the 144th Run for the Roses. His connections made a calculated gamble by running him just twice before the Derby, a strategy that required him to win the Santa Anita Derby in order to draw into the field today.

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Justify has been perfect as the heavy favorite in two Kentucky Derby preps on the West Coast; however, neither win was easy. He won his debut in the El Camino Real Stakes by just two lengths, despite being bet down to 1/20. He followed up that win with a narrow one length score in the Santa Anita Derby at 1/10. He is more likely to be 2/5 or 3/5 today and may need to improve to win in this spot.

The likely second choice is Audible. The Todd Pletcher trainee sat atop everyone’s Kentucky Derby list after his scintillating win in the Holy Bull Stakes in February, but his encore in the Florida Derby was far less impressive. Poised to make a big run, he flattened out and lost by open lengths to Catholic Boy. Even so, he’s a top contender based on those two efforts.

The third choice is Good Magic. Out of Curlin, this Chad Brown trainee was sold for a million dollars as a yearling and responded by being named Champion Two-Year-Old Male as a juvenile. He’s been solid so far this year, finishing second in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park before annexing the second division of the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. There are a few concerns, however. Good Magic was cruising on the lead in the Fountain of Youth Stakes when he suddenly stopped, allowing Promises Fulfilled to rush by for the win. He behaved similarly in the second division of the Blue Grass Stakes, but jockey Jose Ortiz was able to shake him up just in time. He’s talented enough to win here but he will require a more focused effort.

My Boy Jack has steadily gone about his business. Rarely flashy except perhaps in the Southwest when he drew out to a long lead late in the race before being dialed down, he has been a model of consistency. Although he isn’t likely to win against the likes of these, expect him to hit the board.

Magnum Moon is one of the more intriguing horses in the race. It’s hard to overlook the dominant fashion in which Magnum Moon won the Arkansas Derby after three early season losses as the odds on favorite. If he is able to run that same race here, he will be hard to beat. It is difficult to know for sure if he’s turned a corner or if the Arkansas Derby was just a fluke.

It took several defections for Hofburg to draw into this spot. If he has a bright side it’s that he appears to be improving.

—May 4— Two of the leading ladies in the three-year-old filly division raced in separate divisions of the Kentucky Oaks on Friday and both scored big wins. Monomoy Girl was bet down to 1/10 and ran like it, pulling away from Sassy Sienna down the stretch to win her division by three lengths. The Brad Cox trainee made amends for a shocking loss in the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes at Keeneland on April 7. Left at the gate, Monomoy Girl made a furious rally but just fell short of catching She’s a Julie, who got loose on the lead.

In the second division, Midnight Bisou was seeking redemption of sorts as well. The Steve Asmussen trainee finished last in the Santa Ysabel Stakes at Santa Anita in March, beaten more than ten lengths by Dream Tree. She rebounded with a splendid effort in the Santa Anita Oaks, winning by five lengths.

She was 3/5 in the Kentucky Oaks and although she didn’t run quite as well as she had in the Santa Anita Oaks, she still won by more than two lengths over arguably a better field than the one Monomoy Girl faced.

 

Horse	Age	Sex	Starts	Wins	Seconds	Thirds	Total Purses
Midnight Bisou	3	Female	4	3	0	0	$821,802
Monomoy Girl	3	Female	3	2	1	0	$683,830
Wonder Gadot	3	Female	6	2	3	0	$543,380
She’s a Julie	3	Female	3	1	0	1	$347,040
Sassy Sienna	3	Female	5	1	2	0	$317,250
Chocolate Martini	3	Female	3	1	0	1	$296,585
Eskimo Kisses	3	Female	6	1	1	1	$294,275
Shamrock Rose	3	Female	4	3	1	0	$260,000
My Miss Lilly	3	Female	7	1	1	2	$202,750
Caledonia Road	3	Female	2	1	1	0	$185,000
Thewayiam	3	Female	4	2	2	0	$182,560
Dream Tree	3	Female	2	2	0	0	$180,209

 

—May 3— The Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs on Friday caps a day featuring five other graded stakes races, beginning with the Grade 2 Eight Belles Stakes, also for three-year-old fillies. Each race is discussed below.

The Eight Belles Stakes by Kentucky Trailer (Grade 2) 7 furlongs (dirt). Fast. Purse – $200,000. 3-year-olds. Fillies.

4 – Talk Veuve to Me Her two starts this year have been unimpressive. The third favorite in the Fantasy Stakes, she chased Sassy Sienna through the early stages of the race before stopping. She was the second choice in the Sunland Park Oaks in her prior start and wound up a nose and a length removed from the place spot. Nonetheless, if she fires today, she has the talent to win here.

6 – Gas Station Sushi It’s hard to evaluate her performance in the Grade 3 Beaumont Stakes at Keeneland in April. Despite winning by three lengths at odds on, her competition was fair at best. She faces tougher competition today but she’s certainly shown that she is able to perform in the Blue Grass state.

5 – Take Charge Paula It’s been a roller coaster season for Kiaran McLaughlin’s filly, who began the year with a convincing one-and-a-quarter length score in the Grade 2 Forward Gal Stakes at Gulfstream Park. She followed that score with a clunker in the Davona Dale, finishing 13 lengths behind the winner, Fly So High. Good again in the Any Limit Stakes, she lead the field to the halfway point in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks before being passed by most of the field and finishing fifth. All that said, she has raced against some of the best horses in the division and deserves consideration here.

 

The La Troienne Stakes presented by Twinspires.com (Grade I) 1-1/16 Miles (dirt). Fast. Purse – $350,000. 4-year-olds and upward. Fillies and mares.

3 – Abel Tasman Despite not having started this season, Abel Tasman was a terrific sophomore with even better connections. Bob Baffert will have her ready and Mike Smith is in the midst of a dynamite season in which he ranks second (in a three way tie) nationally in wins while reaching the winners circle a whopping 31.7% of the time. Hard to discount.

6 – Martini Glass She finished second to longshot Farrell in the Grade 2 Azeri in her last start despite being favored. She was spectacular in her previous start, however, running away from the field in the Grade 3 Royal Delta Stakes at Gulfstream to win by nearly five lengths. The distance and surface figure to suit her.

1 – Salty Her race in the first division of the Grade 1 Madison Stakes was solid, despite the fact 7 furlongs may not be her best distance. Her win on the turf at Gulfstream over Holy Helena (4-3-1-0, $275,716) was plenty impressive, too, and her rider, Tyler Gaffalione, is on a bit of a roll now after a slow start. She figures to be a factor.

 

The Twin Spires Turf Sprint Stakes (Grade III) 5 furlongs (turf). Firm. Purse – $200,000. 3-year-olds and upward.

5 – Stormy Liberal Laid off since running a disappointing second in the Grade 2 Daytona Stakes at Santa Anita in late February, Stormy Liberal will look to rebound here. Despite its Grade 3 status, the Turf Sprint didn’t draw the best of fields. With any improvement, Stormy Liberal should have little trouble here.

6 – Will Call Will Call was part of a pack of hoses vying for the early lead in the Grade 2 Shakertown Stakes at Keeneland before Matrooh ran away and hid, burying the competition with a three-and-a-half length win. The going in that race was soft, however, and Will Call’s second place showing in the ungraded Colonel Powers Stakes over a firm course at the Fair Grounds resulted in second place finish. Look for a decent effort here.

4 – Vision Perfect After winning the Janus Stakes over this distance and surface in January at Gulfstream Park, Vision Perfect returned to finish last in the Silks Run Stakes over the same track, surface, and distance. On the plus side, he has run against some of the better turf sprinters in the division and figures to be competitive here.

 

The Alysheba Stakes by Sentient Jet (Grade II) 1-1/16 miles (dirt). Fast. Purse – $400,000. 4-year-olds and upward.

1 – Hoppertunity After finishing third behind Accelerate and Mubtaahij in the Grade 1 Big ’Cap at Santa Anita, Hopportunity returned to win the Grade 3 Tokyo City Stakes at a mile-and-a-half as the 6/5 favorite. He beat Mubtaahij in the race by a half-length. The Bob Baffert trainee will be cutting back in distance here but he is likely to benefit from the reduced distance. Flavien Prat (50-13-8-10, 26%), who has been hot as of late, will again be in the saddle.

6 – Good Samaritan Although he hasn’t faced the same level of competition as Hoppertunity, his race in the New Orleans Handicap was tremendous. Rushed from the gate by Rosario, he simply blew away a field that included Leofric, winning by four-and-a-half lengths. His second place effort in the Mineshaft Handicap was solid, too. Though beaten two lengths by the winner, Altissimo, Good Samaritan finished a length in front of the show horse, Lookin for Eight.

2 – Awesome Slew A winner at this distance in his debut in a $90,000 allowance race in February, Awesome Slew has spent the last two months facing some of the best sprinters in the nation. He finished last in the Grade 1 Carter Handicap and seven furlongs, but finished only four lengths behind the winner, Army Mule. He was better in the Grade 3 Count Fleet Sprint Handicap at Oaklawn, finishing fourth behind American Anthem. He’ll need to deliver his best effort here but he stands a chance!

 

The Edgewood Stakes presented by Forcht Bank (Grade III) 1-1/16 miles (turf). Firm. Purse – $200,000. 3-year-olds. Fillies.

4 – Rushing Fall She was third behind Dixie Moon and Thewayiam in her only start this year in the Grade 2 Appalachian Stakes at Keeneland. The course was yielding that day, which may have compromised her chances. Regardless, deserves a second chance.

3 – Got Stormy She began the year with an easy win in the Grade 3 Sweetest Chant Stakes at Gulfstream Park but appeared to be stuck in concrete in her encore, finishing next-to-last in the Herecomesthebride Stakes in early March. She returns after a change in riders to Tyler Gaffalione to face a beatable field in the Edgemore.

6 – Toinette After two decent efforts at about six-and-a-half furlongs on the downhill course at Santa Anita, trainer Neil Drysdale is banking that Toinette will be able to handle the extra two furlongs here. It appears to be a good bet. Flavian Prat will take over for Rafael Bejarano aboard the Scat Daddy filly.

 

The Longines Kentucky Oaks (Grade I). 1st Division. 1-1/8 miles (dirt). Fast. Purse – $750,000. 3-year-olds. Fillies.

4 – Monomoy Girl A lot went wrong in the Ashland Stakes. The overwhelming 1/20 favorite, Monomoy Girl was slow to break. By the time she found her stride She’s a Julie had opened up a huge lead. That said, her relentless pursuit and subsequent three-quarters-of-a-length loss was astounding. Before that loss, she was positively brilliant in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra. This division is slightly weaker than the second division. Monomoy Girl towers over the competition.

5 – Sassy Sienna / 3 – Chocolate Martini It’s hard to choose between these two. Sassy Sienna has been a solid performer. After a difficult debut sprinting, she won the ungraded Martha Washington Stakes, finished fourth in the Grade 3 Honeybee Stakes and was a close second to Wonder Gadot in the Fantasy Stakes.Chocolate Martini faced a very good field in the Dixie Belle Stakes in her debut, finishing third ahead of Sassy Sienna. When stretched out to a mile-and-a-sixteenth she was even better, winning the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks by a neck over Eskimo Kisses, She’s a Julie, Wonder Gadot, Patrona Margarita and Classy Act. A definite contender.

2 – My Miss Lilly Mark Hennig’s filly has had a busy campaign in New York and Gulfstream. After her turf debut in the Ginger Brew Stakes at Gulfstream, she shipped to Aqueduct, where she beat a good field that included Shamrock Rose in the Busanda Stakes. She followed that effort by shipping back to Gulfstream Park and finishing second in the Grade 3 Forward Gal Stakes. Since that time, though, she’s clearly tailed off. She was last in the Busher, fourth in the Cicada and fifth in the Grade 2 Gazelle. She deserves a long vacation but her talent is enough to get her a piece of the purse here.

 

The Longines Kentucky Oaks (Grade I). 2nd Division. 1-1/8 miles (dirt). Fast. Purse – $750,000. 3-year-olds. Fillies.

5 – Midnight Bisou Take away her inexplicable effort in the Santa Ysabel and Midnight Bisou would be the unquestioned leader of the three-year-old filly division. She cruised to a two-and-a-half length win in her debut in the Grade 2 Santa Ynez Stakes and, in her last start in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks, annihilated a crack field to win by five. The odds on choice.

4 – Wonder Gadot She has the distinction as the third best filly in either race. She followed a win in her debut in the Dixie Belle Stakes at Oaklawn January with back-to-back second place finishes in the Martha Washington and Rachel Alexandra Stakes. Her only out-of-the-money finish came in the Fair Grounds Oaks, when she finished fourth, beaten by under a length. She rebounded with a win in the Grade 3 Fantasy Stakes, outlasting Sassy Sienna.

6 – Eskimo Kisses After two unimpressive starts to begin the season, Eskimo Kisses won the Honeybee, finished second by a neck in the Fair Grounds Oaks and placed third in the Ashland. She’s not the spectacular performer Midnight Bisou and Monomoy Girl are, but she’s solid.